Methodology of statistic data processing and analysis

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTIC DATA PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS Introduction Teacher
Responsible instructor: Associate Professor, Dr.oec. Velga Ozoliņa
Academic: Assistant professor, Dr.oec.Astra Auziņa-Emsiņa
Consultations: Kalnciema 6 – room 216
Tuesdays at 16:00 – 18:00 (Week 1-12) Please e-mail me in advance, if you need a consultation V.Ozolina & A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Course Structure
Part I: Econometrics Part II: Other Methods
Final grade = (Part I + Part II)/2
V.Ozolina, Econometrics Where are we going?
The aim of the study course is to develop competences and skills for research using appropriate methods of data processing and analysis. Students will acquire knowledge about social science research problems, methods, research process, its stages, results, their reflection. After completing the study course, students will be able to: 1) select the necessary data for the research in different databases and analyse them; 2) select the necessary scientific publications necessary for substantiation of factors and compile them in the Mendeley system; 3) create a regression model, analyse and evaluate it using software Excel and EViews; 4) collect and present the results of the research.
A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Learning outcomes and assessment Ability to select the necessary data for the research in different databases and analyse them, using software Excel and EViews. - Practical work on data selection and analysis, test, presentation of the research. Ability to select the scientific publications necessary for substantiation of the choice of factors and to compile them in the Mendeley system. - Practical work on the analysis of scientific literature, presentation of the research. Ability to create a regression model, analyse and evaluate it, using software Excel and EViews. - Practical work on the creation, analysis and evaluation of regression equations, test, presentation of the research, examination. Ability to summarize and present the results of the research. - Presentation of the research, examination. Ability to formulate the object of the research, the subject of the research, the aim of the research and the objectives for reaching the aim. Ability to prepare a research plan. - Tests on the relevant topics. Ability to choose the most appropriate methods for a particular study. Ability to apply qualitative and quantitative research methods. - Individual or group research. Presentation. The lecturer analyses and evaluates the results during the lecture, gives comments. Ability to use statistical research methods, using software Excel and EViews. Ability to show understanding of the results, practical solutions, explain them, argue and justify them. - Individual or group test of the research. Presentation. A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Requirements


Practical assignments (5) Tests (1) Research report + presentation (1)
Themes and deadlines in ORTUS, data of your choice
Evaluation – teacher + colleagues
Exam (20% of the final grade) – open book V.Ozolina, Econometrics V.Ozolina & A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics ECONOMETRICS Introduction Prior Knowledge

Mathematics Statistics V.Ozolina, Econometrics Econometrics

The science and art of using economic theory and statistical techniques to analyse economic data. Task of econometrics – to model quantitatively or numerically relations between two or more variables V.Ozolina, Econometrics Quantitative Questions – Quantitative Answers

Economic theory – established causal relations Econometrics – numerically estimated causal relations at a particular accuracy level V.Ozolina, Econometrics Data Types


Cross-Sectional Data Time Series Data Panel Data or Cross-Sectional Time Series Data or Longitudinal Data V.Ozolina, Econometrics Cross-Sectional Data: Ratio of Pupils to Teachers/GDP per capita V.Ozolina, Econometrics Time Series Data: Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 15.0 10.0 Belgium Bulgaria Czechia 5.0 Denmark Germany Estonia 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Greece Spain -5.0 France Croatia Italy -10.0 Cyprus Latvia Lithuania -15.0 -20.0 V.Ozolina &A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Panel Data: Pupil/ Teacher Ratio – GDP per capita (EUR) ... V.Ozolina, Econometrics Time Trend
t = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, ….. V.Ozolina, Econometrics Dummies
For 1999
Changing Stepwise from 2007 V.Ozolina, Econometrics Dummies
Dummy for 1999 .8 .8 .4 .4 .0 .0 .04 .15 -.4 .10 -.8 .05 -.8 .00 .00 -.02 -.05 -.04 -.10 -.4 .02 -.06 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Residual Actual Fitted 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Residual V.Ozolina, Econometrics Actual Fitted Dummies
Dummy from 2009 2400000 2400000 2000000 2000000 1600000 1600000 1200000 1200000 800000 800000 400000 400000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 UK 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 UKF UK V.Ozolina, Econometrics UKF1 Data and units
Data are always linked with the corresponding units
Euro
persons
Kg
l
% A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Data tell stories. But do we listen?
Statistical data describe: Present situation (Example, GDP of Latvia is 29.5 bil euro in 2018).
Present dynamics (Example, GDP of Latvia grew by 4.8%in the last year).
Share or proportion = ratio (Example, Government debt of Latvia is 47.3 % of GDP)

But it is not sound to sum euros with persons.. Units still matters. A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Data always have the source.


Statistical data have the source where they are obtained (data base; pools/quationairs, observations etc.). So data are linked to the Reference. Even if the person (student, manager, engineer, researcher) uses the data, the data still have the source. A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics
Types of data:
Primary (persons collects the data by him/herself (observations, questionaires etc.);
Secondary (example, data bases etc.)
Tertiary (example, reports etc.) A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Data types in reality


Primary data – the most expensive data type (time, labour, capital (=money; equipment etc.) intensive). Secondary – cheaper data type, most widely used type in social sciences. Tertiary – can have only what and how it is.. No way or minimal options to sellect, change dimensions etc. A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics In reality
Tradeoffs should be made. A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics DATA SOURCES Local Data Macroeconomic Indicators
Basic indicators, which characterise any economy, including Latvia:
GDP
Economic structure
Inflation
Unemployment
Foreign trade
Government finances V.Ozolina, Econometrics Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Current prices – nominal GDP:
Production amount in a particular year.
Shows the size of the economy
Is used to calculate economic structure (by industries).
Constant prices – real GDP:
Production amount in a particular year expressed in prices of a base period.
Is used to calculate economic growth (show dynamics). V.Ozolina, Econometrics GDP Dynamics in Latvia, bil.EUR The size of Latvia in 2018 was 35.0 29.5 bil. €. Using this number, we can compare 30.0 Latvia with other countries. 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 In 2018 the economy of Latvia grew by 4.8% 5.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nominālais IKP/ Actual GDP 6.9 7.5 8.4 9.6 11.0 13.6 17.1 22.6 24.4 18.8 17.9 20.3 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.0 27.0 29.5 Reālais IKP/ Real GDP 12.4 13.2 14.1 15.3 16.6 18.4 20.6 22.6 21.8 18.7 17.9 19.1 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.8 23.9 V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics GDP Growth Rate, % 15.0 10.0 10.0 6.4 4.0 5.0 3.0 2.4 1.9 2013 2014 4.6 4.8 2017 2018 2.1 0.0 2007 -5.0 2008 2009 -3.5 2010 2011 2012 -3.9 -10.0 -15.0 -14.4 -20.0 V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics 2015 2016 Data Sources in Latvia
Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB)

Bank of Latvia

www. financelatvia.eu The Financial and Capital Market Commission

www.kase.gov.lv Finance Latvia Association

www.nva.gov.lv The Treasury

www.bank.lv State Employment Agency (NVA)

www.csb.gov.lv www.fktk.lv ... V.Ozolina, Econometrics Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB)
www.csb.gov.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB) – Statistics- Statistical Theme
www.csb.gov.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa,Econometrics Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB)
www.csb.gov.lv
General Statistics (geography, nature, politics)
Economy and Finance (prices, GDP, investment etc.)
Population and Social Processes (education, employment, wages etc.)
Industry, Construction, Trade and Services
Statistical Enterprise Register
Transport and Tourism
Foreign Trade
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Environment and Energy
Science and Technology V.Ozolina, Econometrics Bank of Latvia
www.bank.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Bank of Latvia
www.bank.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Bank of Latvia
www.bank.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Bank of Latvia
www.bank.lv
Key Macroeconomic Indicators (GDP, ouptut, unemployment, wages, prices, trade etc.)
Key Indicators of the MFI (Banking) Sector
MFI balance sheet and monetary statistics
Balance of Payments Statistics
Payment Systems Statistics
Securities Statistics
Interest Rate Statistics
Other Financial Intermediaries (OFI) Statistics
Effective Exchange Rates of the Lats
Financial accounts (quarterly) V.Ozolina, Econometrics State Employment Agency (NVA)
www.nva.gov.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics State Employment Agency (NVA)
www.nva.gov.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics State Employment Agency (NVA)
www.nva.gov.lv
Registered unemployment rate
Changes in the number of employees foreseen by employers
The highest number of registered unemployed/vacancies by professions
Confirmed job calls for foreigners
NVA surveys
Unemployed by gender, period of unemployment, age, education, profession, and target group
Explanation of unemployment concept V.Ozolina, Econometrics The Treasury
www.kase.gov.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Treasury
www.kase.gov.lv
The Treasury`s Annual Public Reports
Monthly Reports on General Government Consolidated Budget Execution
Annual Reports on Government Debt Management
Quarterly Bulletins on Debt Management
Monthly Reports on Guarantees
Monthly Reports on Debt V.Ozolina, Econometrics Finance Latvia Association
https://www.financelatvia.eu/ V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Finance Latvia Association
https://www.financelatvia.eu/ V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Financial and Capital Market Commission
www.fktk.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Financial and Capital Market Commission
www.fktk.lv V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Financial and Capital Market Commission
www.fktk.lv
Credit Institutions
Credit Unions
Insurance
Financial Instruments Market
Pension Funds V.Ozolina, Econometrics
Latvia is only a part of global economy. There is a whole world out there.
Let’s take a look on international data sources.
A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics DATA SOURCES International Data International Data Sources
Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU + ComExt

International Monetary Fund (IMF) – data on ~183 countries

https://www.cia.gov/library/index.html The Economist

stats.oecd.org CIA World Fact Book

data.worldbank.org Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

www.imf.org World Bank – more than 300 indicators of ~214 countries, territories and regions

ec.europa.eu/eurostat www.economist.com United Nations Statistics Division (UN)
unstats.un.org V.Ozolina, Econometrics Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU
ec.europa.eu/eurostat V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU
ec.europa.eu/eurostat V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU
ec.europa.eu/eurostat









General and regional statistics Economy and finance Population and social conditions Industry, trade and services Agriculture, forestry and fisheries International trade Transport Environment and energy Science and technology Tables on EU policy V.Ozolina, Econometrics Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU - ComExt
ec.europa.eu/eurostat V.Ozolina, Econometrics Eurostat – Statistical Bureau of the EU
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/



International trade Indices (NICE) International Trade in Goods Statistics by Enterprise Characteristics Production
NACE Rev. 1.1.
NACE Rev. 2. V.Ozolina, Econometrics International Monetary Fund (IMF)
www.imf.org V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics International Monetary Fund (IMF)
www.imf.org V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics International Monetary Fund (IMF)
www.imf.org V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics International Monetary Fund (IMF)
www.imf.org
National Accounts Monetary Trade
People



Government finance Balance of Payments V.Ozolina, Econometrics World Bank
data.worldbank.org V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics World Bank
data.worldbank.org
Agriculture and Rural Development
Aid Effectiveness
Climate Change
Ecoomic Policy and External Debt
Education
Energy and Mining
Environment
Financial Sector
Gender
Health
Infrastructure
... V.Ozolina, Econometrics OECD
https://data.oecd.org/ V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics OECD
https://data.oecd.org/ V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics OECD
stats.oecd.org









General Statistics Agriculture and Fisheries Demography and Population Development Economic Projections Education and Training Environment Finance Globalisation ... V.Ozolina, Econometrics CIA World Fact Book
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics CIA World Fact Book
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics CIA World Fact Book
https://www.cia.gov/library/index.html
Geography
People and Society
Government
Economy
Energy
Communications
Transportation
Military
Transnational Issues V.Ozolina, Econometrics The Economist
www.economist.com V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Economist
www.economist.com V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics The Economist
www.economist.com
GDP
Inflation
Budget balance
Population
... V.Ozolina, Econometrics United Nations Statistics Division (UN)
unstats.un.org V.Ozolina& A.Auziņa-Emsiņa, Econometrics United Nations Statistics Division (UN)
unstats.un.org
Commodity Trade Statistics Database (COMTRADE)
Census Knowledge Base
Demographic Yearbook system
Distat, the United Nations Disability Statistics Database
Good practices database
InfoNation
Join Oil Data Initiative (JODI)
... V.Ozolina, Econometrics